International Energy Agency Electrification Report 2026: India Projected to Rise From 19 Percent to 32 Percent by 2035

The International Energy Agency released its Electrification Special Report 2026 on 22 September 2026, ahead of the COP31 climate summit in Antalya. The report projects that India’s electrification rate will rise from 19 percent at present to 32 percent by 2035 if cost competitive electric technologies are fully adopted. It also finds that faster electrification in Southeast Asia, from 25 percent to 37 percent, could help cut global energy import bills by more than $400 billion by 2035.

What Is Electrification?

Electrification means replacing machines that burn oil, gas or coal directly with versions that run on electricity. The electrification rate measures the share of electricity in total final energy consumption across buildings, industry and transport. A higher rate means a larger part of daily energy needs is met through electric power.

The International Energy Agency estimates that electricity today accounts for around 23 percent of global final energy use. In simple terms, out of every 100 units of energy used by homes, factories and vehicles, about 23 units come from electricity and the rest come mainly from fossil fuels. This is different from household access to electricity, which in India is already near universal after village electrification was completed in 2018 and 2.86 crore homes were connected under the Pradhan Mantri Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar Yojana (Saubhagya).

Electrification levels vary widely by sector. The buildings sector is the most electrified at nearly 40 percent in 2025, because lights, fans, refrigerators, air conditioners and many appliances run only on electricity. Industry follows, with fast growth in electric motors and low temperature heat in food, textile and paper units. Transport is the least electrified at nearly 2 percent, since petrol and diesel still dominate road, air and sea movement, though electric cars made up nearly 25 percent of new car sales in 2025, up from less than 1 percent in 2015.

Electric technologies are attractive because they convert energy into useful work more efficiently. A battery electric car is two to four times more efficient than a petrol car, so $100 of electricity can drive a car about three times farther than $100 of petrol. Similarly, a heat pump, which pulls heat from outside air, can give about 42 days of heating for $100 of electricity, compared with only 30 days from a gas boiler for the same money.

What Is the International Energy Agency?

The International Energy Agency is an autonomous intergovernmental body that advises governments on secure, affordable and clean energy. The IEA was founded on 18 November 1974 after the 1973 oil crisis, operates under the umbrella of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and is headquartered in Paris, France.

The IEA began with a narrow task of protecting oil supplies through emergency stocks and shared action during supply shocks. Over time its mandate has widened to cover natural gas, electricity, renewables, energy efficiency, critical minerals and climate action. The Executive Director of the IEA is Fatih Birol (as of September 2026), who has led the agency since 2015 and pushed its clean energy and emerging economy agenda.

The IEA family today includes more than 30 member countries, mostly advanced economies, along with Association countries that represent a large share of world energy use. India joined as an Association country and works closely with the agency on energy security, data and clean transition pathways. The flagship publication of the IEA is the annual World Energy Outlook, published every year since 1998, which is widely regarded as the most authoritative source of global energy projections. The agency is hosted inside the Embassy of Australia building at 9 rue de la Federation in Paris.

What Does the Electrification Special Report 2026 Say?

The Electrification Special Report 2026 is a landmark study prepared at the request of Turkiye and Australia, the joint hosts of the COP31 climate summit scheduled in Antalya in November 2026. The IEA released the report on 22 September 2026 during the United Nations General Assembly to guide negotiations on the COP31 Presidency goal of raising electricity to 35 percent of global final energy use by 2035, often called the 35 by 35 target.

The report compares two futures. The Stated Policies Scenario reflects current laws and policies, while the High Electrification Scenario shows what happens if countries push electric technologies harder with strong policies and cooperation. In the High Electrification Scenario, the global electrification rate rises from around 23 percent today to 35 percent by 2035. Even using only technologies that are already cost competitive at 2025 prices and finance costs, the world could reach 33 percent, which puts the 35 percent goal within striking distance.

The study finds that half of home fuel use, half of oil based road travel and almost 40 percent of low and medium temperature industrial heat could already be electrified at competitive cost. If this potential were fully used, every region would gain at least five percentage points, with India and Europe gaining almost 15 percentage points each. The report also warns that extra electricity must come mainly from clean sources such as solar, wind, hydro and nuclear, or climate benefits will be weak. For that, grids, battery storage, demand response and flexible tariffs must expand quickly.

India’s Projection From 19 Percent to 32 Percent

The International Energy Agency places India among the countries with the largest untapped potential for electrification. The electrification rate of India, which was 19 percent in 2023, could rise to 32 percent by 2035 if cost competitive opportunities are fully used. This jump of 13 percentage points is one of the biggest projected gains for any major region and matches the gain expected in Europe.

This projection does not refer to giving homes an electricity connection, a task India largely completed when all inhabited census villages were electrified by April 2018 and all willing homes were covered by March 2019. It refers to the share of electricity in the total energy mix. India still uses large amounts of coal, oil, biomass and gas for cooking, transport and industrial heat, so electricity forms a smaller part of total use even though access is widespread.

Industry is the largest user of electricity in India, accounting for about 40 percent of electricity use, followed by homes at about 24 percent. Per capita electricity use in India was only 1.18 megawatt hours in 2023, well below the Asia Pacific average of 3.55 megawatt hours, which shows room for growth as incomes, appliances, cooling and manufacturing expand. The IEA notes that electric three wheelers have already scaled fast, with over half of new three wheeler registrations electric in 2022, and that low temperature heat in food, textile and paper units can be electrified with available heat pumps and electric boilers.

The transport shift will play a key role in India’s gain, as electric two wheelers, three wheelers, cars and buses replace petrol and diesel. Rising air conditioning demand will also lift the buildings share, while cleaner power from the rapid solar and wind build out, which took total installed capacity to 532.7 gigawatts by March 2026 with 53.2 percent from non fossil sources, will decide how much emission benefit this electrification brings.

Southeast Asia and the Global 35 Percent Goal

The International Energy Agency projects that the electrification rate of Southeast Asia will rise from 25 percent today to 37 percent by 2035 under accelerated adoption. Electricity already forms about 23 percent of final use in the region, above the world average, with Brunei and Vietnam near 30 percent, up from less than 20 percent in the mid 2000s. Demand in the region is set to grow fast, with electricity needs in the next decade alone rising by an amount equal to the total power output of Japan today.

Electric cars show how fast the shift can move. Their share in new car sales in Southeast Asia was almost zero in 2020 but reached nearly one in five cars in 2025, with Vietnam at 41 percent, Singapore at 40 percent and Thailand at 23 percent. Two and three wheelers, which form the world’s largest fleet in the region and use nearly one third of road oil, remain a major next opportunity, along with low temperature industrial heat that makes up about 35 percent of industrial energy demand and could need 300 to 400 terawatt hours of extra power.

Globally, the 35 percent goal proposed by the COP31 Presidency builds on analysis by both the IEA and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), which is headquartered in Abu Dhabi and sees electricity rising from 23 percent today to 35 percent in 2035 and over 50 percent by 2050 in a 1.5 degree pathway. The European Union has set its own reference of 32 percent by 2030 and an indicative 46 percent by 2040 under its Electrification Action Plan of July 2026. Together, these targets signal that electrification is now the central lever for cutting fossil fuel use, alongside tripling renewables and doubling efficiency.

Why Is Electrification Important for Energy Security and Imports?

Electrification is important because it replaces imported oil and gas with domestic electricity, lowers running costs through higher efficiency and cuts emissions when paired with clean power. Electric technologies protect households and firms from volatile fuel markets and supply route shocks, such as the disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz in 2026.

The International Energy Agency estimates that accelerated electrification could cut global energy import bills by more than $400 billion per year by 2035 at 2025 prices. Advanced economies and China would save about $300 billion, equal to nearly 30 percent of their 2025 fuel import bill, while other emerging and developing economies would save over $100 billion, equal to more than 25 percent of their bill. Oil savings dominate, with importers cutting oil imports by 15 million barrels per day, avoiding 120 billion cubic metres of gas imports each year and 100 million tonnes of coal equivalent.

Progress since 2015 already saves importers about $60 billion per year, and $160 billion when renewables and nuclear power are included. Investment in electrification has doubled in the last decade and now forms about 40 percent of total energy investment. Although electric equipment needs higher upfront spending, the report finds that lower fuel costs mean household energy bills in 2035 are lower than today in the high electrification path.

The climate gain is also large if power is cleaned up. Paired with low emission electricity, the high electrification path cuts end use emissions by 40 percent by 2035 and total energy sector emissions by more than half from 2025 levels. Without clean power growth, grids built on coal and gas would limit these gains, which is why the report links electrification to faster solar, wind, storage and grid expansion.

The Way Forward

The International Energy Agency says the next step is to turn the 35 by 35 ambition into concrete national plans before COP31. Governments need to expand generation, grids and storage faster, get more from existing lines through smart meters and flexible demand, and fix tariffs so electricity is not taxed more heavily than gas for heating and cooking. Support for upfront costs, easier finance and faster permits for chargers, retrofits and industrial boilers will decide how much of the cost competitive potential is actually used.

For India, the path runs through clean power, efficient cooling and electric mobility together. Continued growth in solar and wind, stronger distribution networks under the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme, tighter efficiency standards for air conditioners and faster charging networks can convert access into deeper use. For Southeast Asia, where the import bill could otherwise jump from over $80 billion in 2024 to $245 billion by 2035, the same mix of renewables, regional grid links and industrial electrification can limit exposure.

Success will be judged not only by a higher electrification rate but by lower bills, reliable supply and cleaner air. If countries pair electrification with clean generation, the report shows that economic growth, energy security and emission cuts can move in the same direction.

Key Takeaways

• The Electrification Special Report 2026 was released by the International Energy Agency on 22 September 2026 at the request of Turkiye and Australia for COP31.
• India’s electrification rate is projected to rise from 19 percent to 32 percent by 2035 if cost competitive electric technologies are fully adopted.
• Southeast Asia’s electrification rate is projected to rise from 25 percent to 37 percent by 2035.
• Accelerated electrification could cut global energy import bills by over $400 billion per year by 2035, including 15 million barrels per day of avoided oil imports.
• The global goal backed by the report is to raise electricity to 35 percent of final energy use by 2035, up from around 23 percent today.
• The International Energy Agency was founded on 18 November 1974 and is headquartered in Paris, with Fatih Birol as Executive Director and India as an Association country.