The United Nations Environment Programme released the Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled The Point of Return, on 21 October 2026. The 17th edition of the annual report finds that temporarily crossing the 1.5 degree Celsius limit is now unavoidable, with global greenhouse gas emissions at 58.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025. The report says only immediate and deep cuts can limit peak warming and bring temperatures back to 1.5 degrees by 2100.
What Is the Emissions Gap Report?
The Emissions Gap Report is an annual science based assessment published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It measures the gap between the greenhouse gas emissions the world is likely to produce under current pledges and the much lower emissions needed to hold warming to the goals of the Paris Agreement. The 2026 report is the 17th edition in a series that started in 2010.
UNEP is the leading environmental authority in the United Nations system. It was established in 1972 after the UN Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm and is headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya. UNEP works with all 193 UN Member States and co-produces the report with the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre and a large network of scientists. The report is released every year before the annual UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties, known as COP, to guide talks among countries.
The term emissions gap refers to a simple difference. On one side are projected emissions if countries fully carry out their climate promises. On the other side are emissions levels that science says are safe. The wider this gap, the more the world overshoots its temperature limit.
Why Overshoot of 1.5 Degrees Is Now Unavoidable
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 and in force since 2016, aims to hold warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to try to limit it to 1.5 degrees. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN body that assesses climate science, has warned that crossing 1.5 degrees brings far more severe heatwaves, floods, droughts and loss of coral systems.
Overshoot means global temperature rises above 1.5 degrees for a period and then comes back down after strong action and removal of carbon from the air. A small overshoot of up to 0.1 degree was earlier seen as manageable. The Emissions Gap Report 2026 says that chance is now gone after decades of weak action.
The report introduces a new benchmark called the lowest possible 1.5 degree overshoot scenario. In this pathway, peak warming reaches 1.7 to 1.8 degrees around mid century and then falls to 1.5 degrees or below by 2100, with about a 50 percent chance. It has a 66 percent chance of holding the peak to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees. The report warns that every additional fraction of a degree and every extra year above 1.5 degrees raises the risk of irreversible change in ice sheets, permafrost, ocean circulation and coral reefs.
| Warming Pathway in the 2026 Report | Expected Peak Warming | Chance of Success |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest possible 1.5 degree overshoot | 1.7 to 1.8 degrees around mid century, return to 1.5 degrees by 2100 | About 50 percent for return, 66 percent for holding peak |
| Below 2 degrees pathway | About 1.9 degrees peak | 66 percent |
| Full implementation of current pledges | About 2.6 degrees in this century | Continued warming risk |
| Current policies only | About 2.8 degrees and rising after 2100 | High overshoot risk |
| Pledges plus all net zero targets | About 2.1 degrees in this century | Still above Paris goal |
Global Emissions in 2025 Reached 58.4 GtCO2e
Greenhouse gases are gases that trap heat in the atmosphere and raise global temperature. They include carbon dioxide from burning coal, oil and gas, methane from livestock, waste and fuel production, nitrous oxide from farming, and manufactured F-gases used in cooling. The report expresses all gases together as GtCO2e, or gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent, a common unit that compares each gas by its warming power.
UNEP estimates global greenhouse gas emissions at 58.4 GtCO2e in 2025, with an uncertainty range of plus or minus 5.5 GtCO2e. This is about 0.1 GtCO2e lower than 2024. The report says this small dip does not prove that emissions have peaked, because the range of error is large and the 2025 numbers are still early estimates. The flat result still breaks from the past decade, when emissions grew at about 0.8 percent per year, and from the faster growth of 1.7 percent per year between 1990 and 2016.
Carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, which is by far the largest share, rose in 2025. Methane emissions stayed broadly flat. The six largest emitters together account for about 62 percent of global emissions.
| Largest Emitters in 2025 | Share of Global Emissions | Change From 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| China | 29.5 percent | Broadly stable, up 0.1 percent |
| United States | 11.1 percent | Up 2.2 percent |
| India | 8.3 percent | Down 0.2 percent |
| European Union | 5.8 percent | Down 0.2 percent |
| Russia | 4.8 percent | Down 0.1 percent |
| Indonesia | 2.5 percent | Up 1.2 percent |
India remains the third largest emitter in total terms, but its per person emissions are far lower than those of advanced economies. UNEP linked data place Indian per person emissions at about 3.1 tons of CO2 equivalent, compared with about 17.5 tons in the United States and 18.1 tons in Russia. The small fall in Indian emissions in 2025 was linked mainly to lower emissions from the power sector.
What the Lowest Possible Overshoot Pathway Requires
UNEP says the world must start stringent cuts in 2026 itself to stay on the lowest possible overshoot track. Global emissions must fall by 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040, all compared with 2025 levels. Global carbon dioxide emissions must still reach net zero by 2050, meaning any remaining emissions are balanced by removals.
This pace means cutting total emissions at an average rate of 5.7 percent every year between 2025 and 2035. That rate is faster than the 5 percent annual rate called for in the earlier IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. The report warns that without urgent action, holding the peak to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees will quickly slip out of reach. Every five years of carbon dioxide emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by about 0.1 degree.
Cuts alone will not be enough. The pathway also needs carbon dioxide removal, which means taking carbon dioxide out of the air and storing it permanently in rocks, soils, products or underground sites. UNEP estimates a need for about 320 gigatons of removal through this century, equal to about eight years of current global carbon dioxide emissions. The report notes that this scale of removal faces high costs, technology limits and land and social pressures, so it cannot replace rapid emission cuts.
Why Current Climate Pledges Leave a Large Emissions Gap
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the climate action plans each country submits under the Paris Agreement. Every country is expected to file a stronger plan every five years. By 1 September 2026, about 124 parties covering 76 percent of global emissions had filed new NDCs, roughly double the number in the previous year.
UNEP finds that full delivery of these new pledges would cut global emissions by only 5 to 8 percent by 2030 and 11 to 15 percent by 2035 from 2025 levels. That is far below the 18 percent and 45 percent needed for the lowest overshoot track. The shortfall creates an emissions gap of about 5 GtCO2e in 2030 and about 16 GtCO2e in 2035.
The report also points to an implementation gap. Emissions under current policies are about 2 GtCO2e above the level implied by unconditional pledges in 2030, and about 4 GtCO2e above the level implied by conditional pledges that depend on outside finance. UNEP says the quality of NDCs has improved, with more countries using clear base year targets, but few cover all gases and all sectors of the economy.
If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8 degrees in this century and keep rising. If all NDCs are met and similar effort continues after 2030, warming would be limited to about 2.6 degrees. Even if all NDCs plus all additional net zero promises are met, warming would still reach about 2.1 degrees. UNEP says these estimates are worse than last year because of the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of past emissions.
What Sectors Must Change to Return to 1.5 Degrees
The first Global Stocktake, completed at COP28 in 2023 under Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, reviewed collective progress and called for tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency gains, moving away from fossil fuels, cutting methane and halting forest loss. The 2026 report extends these goals to 2035 and 2040 for the lowest overshoot pathway.
To stay on track from 2025 levels, UNEP says the world must at least triple renewable electricity capacity by 2035 and raise it 4.5 times by 2040. The energy needed per unit of economic output, a measure called primary energy intensity, must fall by at least 30 percent by 2035 and 40 percent by 2040. The share of coal in total energy supply must fall by at least 55 percent by 2035 and 75 percent by 2040, while oil must fall by 15 percent and 30 percent and gas by 5 percent and 35 percent over the same years. Electricity from coal must drop by at least 75 percent by 2035 and end almost fully by 2040. Methane emissions must fall by at least 25 percent by 2035 and 40 percent by 2040.
There are signs of progress. Since 2015, global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than earlier expected, and solar power has grown seven times faster. UNEP cites 63 major shifts where emissions fell due to clean power, taxes on carbon and trading systems for emissions. A review of more than 220 policies found that power sector rules cut emissions by about 9 percent on average, while carbon taxes and cap and trade systems cut emissions by 5 to 13 percent across sectors. Forest action lags far behind. Although permanent forest loss has slowed, the pace of protection must rise more than ten times to meet the 2030 halt to deforestation.
Key Takeaways
- The Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled The Point of Return, was released by UNEP on 21 October 2026 as its 17th annual edition.
- Global greenhouse gas emissions stood at 58.4 GtCO2e in 2025, about 0.1 GtCO2e below 2024 levels.
- Breaching 1.5 degrees Celsius is now unavoidable, but the lowest overshoot pathway limits peak warming to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees and returns to 1.5 degrees by 2100.
- The pathway needs emission cuts of 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035 and 69 percent by 2040 from 2025 levels, plus removal of about 320 gigatons of carbon dioxide.
- Full delivery of current NDCs would cut emissions by only 5 to 8 percent by 2030, leaving a gap of 5 GtCO2e and warming of about 2.6 degrees.
