Recent Current Affairs related to Inflation

According to the “Trade and Development Report 2026: The Geoeconomics of Development” released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the economy of India is projected to grow by 7.3%.

The report projected global economic growth at 2.6% (down from 2.9% in 2025) and growth in developing economies at 4% (down from 4.7% in 2025). Additionally, Asia is expected to contribute 59% of global growth in 2026.

According to a report by Business Monitor International (BMI), a unit of Fitch Solutions Company, the GDP growth forecast of India for FY27 has been raised to 7.5% from 6.8%.

However, the forecast for FY28 is lowered to 6.3% from 6.5% due to concerns over household consumption and external economic risks.

The RBI conducted the 4th Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of FY27 under the chairmanship of Governor Sanjay Malhotra.

The MPC voted unanimously to increase the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50%, marking the first rate hike since February 2023.

Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate was adjusted to 5.25%, while the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate stand at 5.75%. The panel shifted its policy stance from neutral to “calibrated tightening.” The RBI raised the GDP growth forecast of India for FY27 by 40 bps to 7.1%.

Additionally, the central bank set a threshold of ₹25,000 crore under the Standardised Approach for Counterparty Credit Risk (SA-CCR), effective from April 1, 2027, and announced the creation of a Technical Consultative Committee for Financial Markets.

American economists Robert E Hall (Stanford University) and Michael Woodford (Columbia University) have been jointly awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

The pair was honoured “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation”. The laureates will share a cash prize of 12 million Swedish kronor ($1.2 million).

The Department of Economic Affairs under the Ministry of Finance (MoF) has maintained the interest rates for all Small Savings Schemes (SSS) for the third quarter (Q2) of the FY27. This marks the 14th consecutive quarter without a revision since the last adjustment in December 2024.

The interest rates for Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana (SSY) and Senior Citizen Savings Scheme (SCSS) are fixed at 8.2%. The rates for National Savings Certificate (NSC), Kisan Vikas Patra (KVP), and Public Provident Fund (PPF) are 7.7%, 7.5%, and 7.1% respectively.

It is to be noted that the MoF has performed quarterly reviews of SSS interest rates since 2016 based on the methodology of the Shyamala Gopinath Committee (2023). Under this framework, SSS rates are kept 25 to 100 basis points (bps) higher than the government bond yields.

According to the “Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2026: Navigating Prolonged Energy Shocks and El Nino” report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of India for FY27 is raised to 7% (an increase of 40 basis points from the earlier estimate of 6.6%).

The report also projected the inflation rate of India for FY27 at 5%.

According to the “Global Economic Outlook - September 2026” report released by Fitch Ratings, the GDP growth forecast of India for the FY27 has been raised by 50 bps to 6.9% from the earlier projection of 6.4%.

The rating agency also projected that the headline inflation of India will increase to 5.5% by December 2026.

According to the “OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2026: Weathering Successive Shocks” released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of India for FY27 is revised upwards by 80 basis points (bps) to 7.1% from the earlier 6.3%.

The growth for FY28 is projected at 6.5%. The report also estimated the inflation of India for FY27 and FY28 at 4.7% and 4.2% respectively.

According to the report “Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Q4 2026: Exports, Domestic Demand Will Shore Up Growth” released by S&P Global Ratings, the GDP growth of India for FY27 is revised upwards to 7% from 6.6%.

The growth for FY28, FY29, and FY30 is projected at 7.2%, 7%, and 6.8% respectively.

According to a report by Moodys Ratings, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of India for the FY27 is revised upwards to 7% from the earlier estimate of 6%. The inflation rate for FY27 is projected at 4.8%.

According to a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the GDP growth forecast of India for FY27 is revised to 7% from the earlier estimate of 6.6% in July.

The RBI has released the June 2026 edition of the biannual “Financial Stability Report” (FSR), which presents an assessment by the Sub-Committee of the Financial Stability and Development Council (FSDC) on risks to the financial system of India.

According to the report, the economy of India grew at 7.7% in FY26. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has revised the inflation projection for the 2026-27 period to 5.1%. The foreign exchange reserves of India were recorded at $672.6 billion as of June 19, 2026.

According to a report by India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of India for FY27 is upgraded to 6.8%, from the 6.7% estimated in May 2026.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation is projected at 8.5% in FY27 from 0.4% in FY26. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is estimated to average 4.9% in FY27, with retail inflation expected to peak at 5.9% in Q3FY27 before moderating to 5% in Q4FY27.

According to the 101st Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) released by the RBI, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of India is projected at 6.6% for FY27 (up from 6.5% estimated in the 100th SPF) and 7.0% for FY28.

The panellists placed the overall real GDP growth forecasts in the range of 6.0-7.2% for FY27 and 6.5-7.8% for FY28. The quarterly real GDP growth is projected at 6.8% (year-on-year) during Q1 FY27, and is expected to remain within the range of 6.4-7.0% over the subsequent four quarters.

The 62nd and 3rd Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of FY27 was held under the chairmanship of Sanjay Malhotra, Governor of the RBI.

The MPC voted unanimously to keep the policy repo rate under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) unchanged at 5.25%, while maintaining a “Neutral” stance. The Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate remains at 5%, and both the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate are maintained at 5.5%.

The RBI has revised the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of India for FY27 upward to 6.7% from its previous projection of 6.6%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for FY27 is projected at 5%.

According to a report by ICRA Ltd, India's real GDP growth for the first quarter (Q1) of FY27 is projected at 6.4-6.6%.

RBI has launched the July 2026 round of three household surveys to gather inputs for the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) collects data on price movements from 19 major cities, covering current, 3-month-ahead, and 1-year-ahead inflation expectations.

The Urban Consumer Confidence Survey (UCCS) monitors qualitative responses from urban households in 19 cities regarding economic sentiment, including employment, income, spending, and the general economic situation.

The Rural Consumer Confidence Survey (RCCS) assesses economic confidence and expectations for rural and semi-urban households across 31 States and Union Territories (UTs).

According to a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), India's GDP growth forecast for FY27 has been revised to 6.6% from the earlier 6.9%. The growth projection for FY28 is maintained at 7.3%.

The ADB has also raised the inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.2% from 4.5%, while the projection for FY28 is maintained at 4%.

According to the report titled " India: Improved Macro Outlook after the United States of America (USA)-Iran Deal" released by Goldman Sachs, India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for Calendar Year 2026 (CY26) has been raised to 6.8%. The growth forecast for FY27 is increased to 6.5%.

The report also lowered India's retail inflation projection for the current year to 4.4% and reduced the Current Account Deficit (CAD) projection by 20 basis points (bps) to 1.1% of GDP.

According to the "Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Q3 2026" report released by S&P Global Ratings (S&P), the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of India for FY27 is revised to 6.6%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation of India is projected to rise to 5.1%.